Dan K’s State of the U.S. Junior Hockey Union
Week One In A Multi-Part Ongoing Series
League takeovers, paying to play “tuition-free” hockey, mid-season league/team brand changes, multiple coaching changes, continued Junior team expansion, massive hockey media moves and the earth-shattering news of the CHL’s newfound NCAA Division I eligibility; these are just some of the tales you have and have not heard of in the past year of U.S. Junior Hockey. With how crazy the U.S. Junior Hockey landscape has become over the last year, it can be a disheartening endeavor for players and their families to attempt to navigate the upcoming off-season in Junior Hockey.
With continued growth at the “Tier 2” level of hockey, players and parents, and more importantly their bank accounts, will be faced with the most financially aggressive off-season in the history of developmental hockey. More than ever before, players will be sold on the dream of playing high-level hockey; promised that their goals and aspirations are just one more credit card transaction away. This series of articles is intended to help families and players navigate their upcoming challenges, while hopefully inspiring some of the power players in Junior Hockey to push for morality, practicality and reality in their camps and business models this summer and beyond. Each week I will dive into new and interesting topics and discussions about our great game.
The Real Accounting of U.S. Junior Hockey Tiers
With the recent announcement from the Eastern Hockey League that it will now operate at the Tier 2 level, and the NCDC’s announcement prior to the 2024-2025 season that the Seacoast Spartans, Boston Jr. Rangers and Worcester Railers (all plucked from the EHL by the new NCDC leadership days before the new season), would operate as experimental pay-to-play Tier 2 teams, it can be hard for anyone to see the blurred lines that truly mark the levels of Junior Hockey outside the framework of USA Hockey. Many have coined the term Tier 2.5 hockey to describe the NCDC and future operations of the EHL beginning in 2025-2026. To me I think there is a simpler way to lay it all out.
TIER 1 HOCKEY:
The USHL and only the USHL. Recently the USPHL/NCDC may have made the highly questionable decision to not just throw barbs at the EHL following their Tier 2 announcement, but at the quality of Tier 3 hockey as a whole, equating the level to a “pig” in need of some “lipstick,” while sarcastically announcing their Tier 1 status. I am here to inform you that but one Tier 1 league operates in this country: the USHL.
Parents and players. If you have the quality to cut it in this league, you will know it. How? Because you won’t need articles like this to decipher the world of Junior Hockey. Your path will already be well defined, and if you have a chance to play on USHL ice, congratulations.
TIER 2 HOCKEY:
With the NCDC’s decision to dabble in the pay-to-play world and us yet to see what a Tier 2 EHL will look like in practice; my argument would be that yet again, just one true Tuition-Free Tier 2 league exists; the NAHL. For those who aren’t as adeptly aware of the history of US Tier 2 hockey, the NCDC was started with the best of intentions by former USPHL Commissioner Richard Gallant and the Executive Committee of the USPHL in 2017.
At the time, (and still to this day) USA Hockey leadership was dominated with representation from the NAHL and USHL. As the USPHL came to be out of the breakdown of the EJHL, league leadership wanted to bring higher level hockey to rinks throughout New England. The barrier for these teams to achieve Tier 2 status? Ticket sales and rink size. Anyone who lives in the New England region or the Tri-State area of NY/NJ/CT thoroughly understands just how difficult packing a “barn” can be with so much to do for residents in these highly bustling areas. With an unwillingness to budge on the need for the business to operate on gate, amongst other obstacles laid in the way of the USPHL, the league made the ground-breaking decisions to change the hockey landscape and leave USA Hockey altogether, allowing them to launch the National Collegiate Development Conference (NCDC). It was a first of its kind Tier 2 Tuition-Free opportunity for athletes to play high-level hockey without the constraints of ticket sales on the backs of team leadership.
Today with the league trending towards experimentation with Pay-to-Play for interested organizations players and families are left in a grey area, unsure of what recruitment from interested organizations will bring to them in terms of financial commitment.
The NAHL continues to operate within the Tier 2, Tuition-Free constraints set out by the leadership of USA Hockey. Players and families can rest assured that this stalwart will continue to operate as Tier 2 is intended to be, at least most of the time.
TIER 3 HOCKEY:
The NCDC. THE EHL. And hear me out, the USPHL Premier.
In this brave new age of US Junior Hockey, the Tier structure must be adjusted to better account for what a player can expect to accomplish from playing at a given level and more importantly, how much that playing experience will cost. With the EHL model still not entirely revealed in practice, and NCDC operating with some teams as Pay-To-Play and some teams entirely Tuition-Free, I argue that families can expect costs in those leagues similar to that encountered at the Tier 3 Pay-to-Play levels of the game.
At the same time, families may find that they have a better chance of playing actual free hockey in some regions of the U.S. in the USPHL Premier, as teams and owners at this level of play get marginalized by the ever-growing NCDC brand. Many successful USPHL Premier operators have made their money and forged their success through finding talented skaters and developing them well-enough to find homes at the NCAA DIII level of play. With teams like the Springfield Pics, Boston Jr. Bruins and others joining the NCDC’s Pay-to-Play hockey model next season, these Premier owners will find it nearly impossible to continue to live up to their previously successful approach to their programs. Some will settle into a USPHL Elite level of athlete and find new ways to provide player development and growth to athletes destined for club level ACHA and/or AAU hockey. While other operators will move more aggressively towards providing discounted and in some cases, actual tuition-free hockey to ensure they can still send players to the NCAA DIII ranks. Parents and players would be smart to look west of the Mississippi and South of the Mason Dixon for opportunities that may not even exist at the NCDC level.
TIER 4 HOCKEY:
Yeah, I know. As youth hockey seems destined to add a AAAA level of play to as a way to squeeze every last dollar from families of hockey players who are desperate to have a higher status than the player next to them; Junior Hockey is left with a new level of the development game.
The members of this new group? The USPHL Elite, EHL Premier and NA3HL. These three groups will work to develop younger participants into viable players at the higher levels of their governing bodies, but with less NCAA opportunities than ever matched with more “Tier 2” hockey than this country has ever seen; these levels will fight just to survive the next few years.
The NA3HL stands the best chance of going unchanged. It’s ability to still feed to an actual free-to-play model, mixed with the backing of USA Hockey will subsidize this league forever.
The EHL Premier will certainly struggle in the coming years. As the focus of the EHL turns to making a Tier 2 model work, teams will most likely be forced to raise the pricing of the EHLP for players to suffice for the financial hit taken at the higher level. Time will tell how the market will respond to this move.
In the USPHL, the Elite division is an interesting topic. The new leader of the USPHL, Interim Commissioner Murry Gunty is at the helm of Black Bear Sports and the THF. His recent success in rink ownership and youth hockey league operation positions the Elite in the best spot amongst its Tier 4 competitors to “rebrand.” Early this year the USPHL announced the launch of an 18U USPHL league outside of the constraints of USA Hockey. I would not be surprised if the league’s plan would be to roll its Elite division into this level of play eventually turning it into an 18U feeder league to the Premier and NCDC.
WHO STANDS TO WIN?
At the Dan K Show we love a good Power Ranking. So, let’s talk about who stands to win in this new world of Junior Hockey and our new proposed Tier structure.
As “least likely to win”, we have the USHL. This is not intended to say that the league is in dire straits; but more to highlight how much more difficult victories will be for the country’s best Junior Hockey league. The CHL is already and will continue to steal the NCAA DI spotlight from the USHL going forward. Until the league has its feet back under it, expect some waves and bumps over the next few seasons. At the end of the day though, any failure for the USHL will still outshine any competing US Junior league’s best success.
Next, we have the EHL. Change can be great, but financial change in any business will always leave some shockwaves behind as the league re-brands itself to Tier 2. The battle to keep EHL Premier rosters full, matched with the need to compete financially with the NCDC for the best remaining athletes will keep the EHL and Commissioner Neil Ravin very busy this off-season.
Next, the NAHL comes in to play with this true Tier 2 structure. The EHL and NCDC going to war has an unintended side effect. It helps to highlight the NAHL as the best Tier 2 option, because rather than focusing on taking competitor’s organizations or hurling social media insults, the NAHL continues to keep its sights on developing talent and elevating it to the next level of the game. This continued focus, mixed with the ability for the NAHL to set its eyes directly on NCAA DIII commitments, leaves it miles ahead of it competition in the optics department.
The Black Bear Sports Group and its USPHL/NCDC stand in the best position as of today’s date to find financial success in this new marketplace. In the off-season, Black Bear announced the formation of BlackBearTV, a streaming service that partners with Spiideo to provide analytics and broadcasting via autonomous HD cameras. It would make sense for the 100+ team USPHL to eventually move to this service, and the financial gains for the ever-growing company will be massive. In addition to this, Black Bear’s success with THF positions them to pivot if participation numbers tail off in the post-CHL to NCAA DI world. The launch of the 18U league could provide stability and a safe-haven for USPHL Elite operators nationwide that the EHL cannot provide in its current construction. The NCDC also already operates experimentally at the Tier 2 level as a pay-to-play, meaning they have a head start on their new Tier 2 competition in the EHL.
IN CONCLUSION FOR YOU PARENTS AND PLAYERS
After the CHL to NCAA DI news it is important to make smart financial and life decisions for your athletes. When it comes to camps, do not just feed the fundraiser that is Tier 2 hockey. If a coach will not spend time discussing your player with you prior to a camp or cannot fully explain why you should attend; you are not in their plans beyond the few hundred dollars you send them for the ice time. Be smart, be safe, and please do not be afraid to reach out to us here at The Dan K Show for assistance and to ask questions on your journey towards the 2025-2026 hockey season and beyond.