Ready, Set, Go! The Dates that Matter
Between March 23 and August 31st, we will know who wins the battle to supply the NHL with its next generation of North American Players: NCAA Division I, or the Canadian Hockey League.
Here are the dates that matter and why.
March 23-June 1: The end of the CHL Season
If there are CHL players like 4th overall 2024 NHL draft Cayden Linstrom (Medicine Hat) or highly rated CHL players for the 2025 NHL draft like Matthew Schaefer (Erie) or Michael Misa (Saginaw) who have yet to sign Entry Level Contracts (ELC’s) AND have intentions to play D1 next season they would not have announced these intentions until their CHL season is completed because such announcement would have disrupted their 2024-25 season. On March 23, 12 CHL team’s season will end and each two weeks after that half of the remaining 48 teams will be eliminated until a Memorial Cup Champion is declared. Players will only announce their intentions to leave the CHL for D1 once their team has been eliminated. If D1 isn’t committing 2024 drafts and upcoming 2025 drafts from these eliminated teams the game of supplying the NHL is over for D1.
March 19-23: US National Team Development Program (USNTDP) 2009
USA Hockey will invite who they believe are the best 2009 birth-year players to Plymouth for their annual tryout camp to form the younger development team. Typically, the first week in April they announce their roster. Will they get the best Americans or will some of the best players instead go play in the CHL? If the USNTDP can’t keep the best Americans, the USNTDP is in trouble.
March 31-May 14 the Transfer Portal
Undergraduate students can enter the portal between March 31-May 14. If a D1 team changes coaches or reduces a player’s aid a player can enter any time. However, graduate students can enter any time. Welcome to the insanity where the rich outspend the poor and the blue-bloods steal from the non blue-bloods. Hockey 101 doesn’t believe any of the unsigned 2024 NCAA draftees or the current 2025 NHL draft eligible players that are in the NCAA will leave D1 for the CHL; but if they do, there is a storm brewing for D1 Hockey.
The CHL Drafts: OHL April 11/12, WHL May 1, QMJHL June 6/7
Hockey 101 has consistently said that all the best 16- and 17-year-old players in North America will bypass the USHL and migrate to the CHL. Each of the CHL drafts will give us insight into the accuracy of this prediction. CHL teams don’t typically select American players in the first three rounds unless the Americans are 100% reporting. In 2024, one American was drafted in the first three rounds of the WHL draft, two in the OHL, and zero in the QMJHL. If the number of Americans drafted in the first three rounds of the CHL drafts increases this will be trouble for D1.
USHL Futures Draft May 5
The USHL will draft the best 09’s in their Phase 1 Futures Draft. Teams may tender a 09 in which case they will give up their first selection. Tender another 09, give up your next draft.
Some context from past USHL Futures Drafts:
1) The USNTDP would historically get the best 23 players.
2) The CHL would get a few of the of the very best Americans.
3) The USHL got the next rung of the ladder.
4) In the future, the next Canadian Celebrini, Power and Fantilli types are not coming to the USHL. They will be in the CHL.
5) Previously, USHL Futures Drafts have seen the smartest USHL teams tender the very best young and give up their drafts. Why wouldn’t you? By doing so you get the best players.
6) With the CHL expected to get all the best 09’s, we are predicting a lower quality of 09 in the USHL for 2025-2026.
NHL Date June 27-28
We will replace the Top 105 North American Skaters rated by NHL Central Scouting with the actual draft choices and keep track of these players to see who is supplying the NHL with players; NCAA D1 or CHL.
These are the key dates to keep in mind when evaluating the success of both the NCAA and the CHL when it comes to earning the right to claim the future of NHL talent.