Deep Dive Into The Battle For The 229 NHL Prospects
Written by Bob Turow and The Dan K Show Staff
The NHL has stated with the 2024 draft and the 2025 NHL Midterm Central Scouting rankings who the Top 330 prospective NHL players are from these groups. 68 players have already signed Entry Level Contracts (ELC’s) and are NCAA ineligible. 229 North American skaters have not signed ELC’s and can choice to play in the CHL or NCAA for the 2025-2026 season. Let’s start digging into the specifics of these 229 in context of who will be the official supplier to the NHL, the CHL or the NCAA.
The NCAA Deferral Commitments
A NCAA D1 deferral commitment occurs once the player is committed to an NCAA school but he is not brought in for the next season. Instead, the school he has committed to has decided to bring him to play at their school for 1-3 years down the road. The problem for D1 schools is that the goal of elite players is to advance to the NHL as fast as they can and the player can choose the CHL instead of D1 if the player believes it is in his best interest.
2024 NHL Drafts Who Are D1 Deferrals
Luke Osburn and Mikus Vecvanags. Both are 06’s and will be 19 next season. Osburn is a Wisconsin deferred commit currently playing with Youngstown in the USHL and has good production for a defenseman with 27 points in 36 games. Will Osburn wait until 26-27 to go to Wisconsin? A player’s decision to play, or stay, in Youngstown now carries an additional wrinkle: Youngstown has tried to move to the OHL, and players may be making a bet that it will happen soon. In Osburn’s case, 19 year-old d-men who put up those kinds of points are typically hot commodities in the OHL. The problem Wisconsin has is if Osburn plays in the OHL next year and lights it up, maybe he signs an ELC, heads straight to pro and/or the AHL, and Wisconsin never sees him play a minute in Badger red.
Vecvanags season has not been as productive this season plus he is a goaltender. and as a goaltender his options are traditionally more limited. Maine will most likely feel more comfortable in rolling the dice here and allow him to play at a lower level next year
2025 NHL Draft Top 105 who are D1 Deferrals
Every CHL team that owns these players’ rights will want them to play in CHL jerseys in 25-26 and will want their service until they advance to professional hockey. If these players can’t advance directly to professional hockey from the CHL then the CHL teams will allow these players to go D1 and have D1 pick up their educational costs instead of the CHL.
How can we track this trend? We must track if these D1 teams choose to advance their scouting progression from ‘26-‘27 to ‘25-‘26. If players aren’t fast tracked into D1 for ‘25-‘26, they could remain in the USHL. But based on recent trends, and our own Hockey 101 analysis, these players will go to the CHL in same way that two of the USHL’s most visible franchises are trying to go.
If D1 schools don’t take these players for 25-26 each school will risk never seeing them!
Our next articles will look at the players who have committed D1 from the 229 total players next year, the ‘04 and ‘05 birth years from the 2024 NHL draft, and then the CHL players from the 229 that may leave the CHL to go D1 in 25-26.